Event-Tree Based Sequence Mining Using LSTM Deep-Learning Model
During the operation of modern technical systems, the use of the LSTM model for the prediction of process variable values and system states is commonly widespread. The goal of this paper is to expand the application of the LSTM-based models upon obtaining information based on prediction. In this method, by predicting transition probabilities, the output layer is interpreted as a probability model by creating a prediction tree of sequences instead of just a single sequence. By further analyzing the prediction tree, we can take risk considerations into account, extract more complex prediction, and analyze what event trees are yielded from different input sequences, that is, with a given state or input sequence, the upcoming events and the probability of their occurrence are considered. In the case of online application, by utilizing a series of input events and the probability trees, it is possible to predetermine subsequent event sequences. The applicability and performance of the approach are demonstrated via a dataset in which the occurrence of events is predetermined, and further datasets are generated with a higher-order decision tree-based model. The case studies simply and effectively validate the performance of the created tool as the structure of the generated tree, and the determined probabilities reflect the original dataset.
Learning and predicting operation strategies by sequence mining and deep learning (full paper)
The operators of chemical technologies are frequently faced with the problem of determining optimal interventions. Our aim is to develop data-driven models by exploring the consequential relationships in the alarm and event-log database of industrial systems. Our motivation is twofold: (1) to facilitate the work of the operators by predicting future events and (2) analyse how consequent the event series is. The core idea is that machine learning algorithms can learn sequences of events by exploring connected events in databases. First, frequent sequence mining applications are utilised to determine how the event sequences evolve during the operation. Second, a sequence-to-sequence deep learning model is proposed for their prediction. The long short-term memory unit-based model (LSTM) is capable of evaluating rare operation situations and their consequential events. The performance of this methodology is presented with regard to the analysis of the alarm and event-log database of an industrial delayed coker unit.
Learning operation strategies from alarm management systems by temporal pattern mining and deep learning
We introduce a sequence to sequence deep learning algorithm to learn and predict sequences of process alarms and warnings. The proposed recurrent neural network model utilizes an encoder layer of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) units to map the input sequence of discrete events into a vector of fixed dimensionality, and a decoder LSTM layer to form a prediction of the sequence of future events. We demonstrate that the information extracted by this model from alarm log databases can be used to suppress alarms with low information content which reduces the operator workload. To generate easily reproducible results and stimulate the development of alarm management algorithms we define an alarm management benchmark problem based on the simulator of a vinyl acetate production technology. The results confirm that sequence to sequence learning is a useful tool in alarm rationalization and, in more general, for process engineers interested in predicting the occurrence of discrete events.
Understanding the importance of process alarms based on the analysis of deep recurrent neural networks trained for fault isolation
The identification of process faults is a complex and challenging task due to the high amount of alarms and warnings of control systems. To extract information about the relationships between these discrete events, we utilise multi-temporal sequences of alarm and warning signals as inputs of a recurrent neural network (RNN) based classifier and visualise the network by principal component analysis. The similarity of the events and their applicability in fault isolation can be evaluated based on the linear embedding layer of the network, which maps the input signals into a continuous-valued vector space. The method is demonstrated in a simulated vinyl acetate production technology. The results illustrate that with the application of RNN based sequence learning not only accurate fault classification solutions can be developed, but the visualisation of the model can give useful hints for hazard analysis.